TOPIC:

Very interesting David, so the median price of QSAs is falling at DNW - that would back "market sentiment". Is the £204 figure inclusive of premium etc?

This data could be dangerous - especially where the sample is so small, such as Defence medals. I could see hopeful sellers taking the 2018 mean as a guide for the medal they are selling..

When I was doing Findamedal.com some years ago I wrote a number scripts in VBA to unpick dealer's lists to load the data into a database. Fiddly, but usually successful until they became inconsistent. DNW should be ok as they faithfully reproduce the naming on the medal - typos excepted.

Meurig,

Yes, the values include commission at the appropriate rate.

Data can always be mis-used. This is not a prediction of the future but a record of the past. If sellers do choose the auction route, they will need to aware of the many factors that affect returns.

It will be interesting to dis-assemble the naming and see how many patterns emerge. Looking at the regiment, there are 4 patterns so far and I would imagine there will be more.

Kind regards
David

I think it is rather pleasing that a regimental collector can still go out and buy a medal, often for somewhat less, even at retail, than the average price, from this particular saleroom.

djb wrote: The next plot shows the mean and median prices for QSAs (as singles and in groups) since 1991,

The mean is the average price for all QSAs sold in the year. One of the shortcomings of the mean is that it is very susceptible to outliers (for example, very expensive groups containing a QSA). For this reason, the median or middle value when prices are ranked from cheapest to most expensive can give a 'better' average for QSA prices in a year. That the median is lower than the mean shows that the price distribution has a positive skew and that there are many expensive QSAs in the tail of the distribution to the right of the centre of the distribution.

It is interesting to note how the median value has only increased gradually over time. This year's results have been affected by the number of individual, colonial and IY, QSAa offered for sale. But this year is also not yet complete.

In case you are wondering what caused the peaks in the means, 2015 saw the sale of the VC group to 3105 Dvr. F. G. Bradley, 69th Bty. R.F.A. and 2012 the VC group to 2332 Serjt. W. B. Traynor, W. York Regt. The Magersfontein Victoria Cross group to Sergeant J. D. F. Shaul, Highland Light Infantry, was sold in 2006.

This analysis suggests the current, average price for a QSA (single or group) is £ 204, R 3600, Au $ 355, Can $ 350 or US $ 260.

The following few plots look at QSA clasps, both as single medals and in groups.

For these plots, I have limited the maximum cost to £2,000 to remove outliers. The plots show a point for every sale and include markers for both the mean and median (within the range of £0 - £2,000). Cost includes commission.



For me these plots are interesting as they show frequency of appearance and cost over time.

In 2009, DNW sold two Talana QSAs. One to Major A C McLachlan MC, 18th Hussars for a hammer price of £3,400 (this group has sold twice at DNW since) and QSA (1) Tal to 998 Pte. W. Kinsey, KRRC, who was killed in action at Dundee on 20 October 1899. This hammered at £1,000, The first of these items is excluded as it exceeds £2,000 and the latter accounts for the single data point in 2009 and the co-location of both the mean and median values.