March 8th, 1900
Lord Roberts yesterday defeated the Boers near Poplar's Drift. In order to
measure the importance of the event it may be well to begin by a rough
general survey of the condition of affairs.
There have long been signs that the Boer Power was subjected to a very great
strain by the effort made to hold, against ever-increasing British forces, a
number of points upon the circumference of a very large area. The Boers were
attacking Mafeking and Kimberley, and covering their action at both points
by forces intended to delay the relieving columns. They were also
endeavouring to support rebellion throughout a great tract of country in the
Cape Colony, extending from Prieska on the west to the Basuto border on the
east, and covering the rebels by parties posted to resist the advance of
Gatacre and French along the railways from the south coast to the Orange
River. These two groups of enterprises were but the subordinate features of
a campaign in which the principal undertaking was the reduction of
Ladysmith, which involved a prolonged and stubborn resistance to the
repeated assaults of Sir Redvers Buller.
Thus the Boer Governments, or their commander-in-chief, set out at the
beginning to do many things at the same time. There were few British troops
in the country, and there was the possibility of great success, at least in
the shape of the occupation of territory, before the British forces could be
assembled. But shortly after the arrival of Sir Redvers Buller's Army Corps
it began to be evident that the Boer forces were balanced by the British.
There was a pause in the movements. The British made little headway and the
Boers none. Yet, as both sides were doing their best, it was clear that the
Boers required the utmost exertion of all their energies to maintain the
equilibrium. This condition may be said to have lasted from about the middle
of December to the middle of February. During those two months, however,
while the Boers were at full tension, the British were gathering new forces
behind their front line, which itself was all the time receiving gradual
accessions of strength.
When Lord Roberts with fifty thousand men burst through the Boer cordon and
destroyed the force with which Cronje had been covering the siege of
Kimberley, the Boers had no reserve of force with which to fill up the gap.
Every man sent to Cronje's assistance had to be taken from some other post
where he was sorely needed. The detachments sent from Natal into the Free
State left the Natal Army, already wearied by its long unsuccessful siege of
Ladysmith, and by Buller's persistent attacks, too weak to continue at once
the siege and the resistance to Buller. But the two tasks were inseparable,
and when Buller renewed his attack and drove the Boers from their posts
south of the Tugela, the Boer army of Natal found itself able to cover its
retreat only by a last desperate rearguard action at Pieters.
Defeat in the Free State and collapse in Natal were accompanied by the
abandonment of the effort to support the rebellion in Cape Colony.
This general breakdown following upon prolonged over-exertion, and
accompanied in the two principal regions by complete defeat, must have had
its effects on the spirits of the troops. Hope must be gone and despair at
hand, and the consequent diminution of power is sure to be considerable.
There is no sign as yet of any strong leadership such as could to some
extent restore the fortunes of the Boer army. The retreat beyond the Orange
River has been gradual; the siege of Mafeking has not been abandoned, and
there is no sign of a determined concentration of forces to oppose Lord
Roberts.
Since the surrender of Cronje on February 27th, Lord Roberts has been
completing his supplies, and probably making good the damage to his
transport caused by the loss of a convoy on the Riet River. He has also
brought up the Guards Brigade as a reinforcement. A few days ago the camp
was moved forward from Paardeberg to Osfontein, and beyond Osfontein the
Boers were observed collecting their troops from day to day and extending
their position, which ran roughly north and south across the Modder.
Yesterday Lord Roberts advanced to the attack with three and a half infantry
divisions, a cavalry division and a brigade of mounted infantry. The
cavalry, followed by an infantry division, turned the enemy's left flank,
and by noon the enemy's army was in full retreat towards the north and east,
pursued by the British. The Boers have this time not ventured to stand to
fight. They have seen themselves assailed in front by a force which must
have greatly outnumbered them at the same time that their flank was turned
by a force as mobile as their own. Their precipitate retreat coming after
their late defeats must increase their demoralisation, and it will hardly be
practicable for them to make a fresh stand east of the Free State Railway.
Lord Roberts will be on the railway with the bulk of his force by Saturday
or Sunday, and his presence there will complete the break up of the Boer
defences of the Orange River.
The situation of the Boers is now, as far as it depends on themselves,
desperate. They can hardly collect forty thousand men for a decisive battle,
and are confronted by two armies, each of which has that strength, the one
nearing Bloemfontein, the other at Ladysmith. Lord Roberts, when he reaches
the railway, will probably call up from the Orange River such additional
forces as are not required as garrisons in Cape Colony. His numbers can be
fed by constant small reinforcements, while the Boers have no means of
increasing their numbers. With each succeeding week, therefore, the British
will grow stronger and the Boers fewer. The utmost that the Boer
commander-in-chief can expect to accomplish is to delay that advance to
Pretoria which he cannot prevent.
He
may perhaps bring about the fall of Mafeking, if he chooses to dispense for
a few weeks longer with the reinforcements which Commandant Snyman by
raising the siege could bring to his main army. There was indeed some days
ago an unofficial report that a strong column was moving north from
Kimberley. If that were true the destination of the column must have been
Mafeking, but it is not clear what its composition could be. The Guards
Brigade being at Poplar's Drift there would be left the other brigade of the
first division, and that may be on its way towards the north. Resistance was
expected at the passage of the Vaal at Fourteen Streams, but that point must
have already been reached. Probably nothing will be heard of this column
until it has accomplished its task, except in the not very probable event of
hard fighting between Winsorton and Mafeking. Colonel Baden-Powell is known
to be very hard pressed, being short of provisions and of troops. It is
certain the column will make every effort to reach Mafeking in time, but the
distance is great. The best chance of success would be found in the despatch
of a large body of mounted troops to move in the fashion of the great
raiding expeditions of the American Civil War; but it is doubtful whether
sufficient mounted troops were or are available.
Apart from their own resources the Boers may hope for help from outside.
They have from the beginning looked for the intervention of some great
Power, for the assistance of the Dutch party at the Cape, and for such
action by the British Opposition as might embarrass the Government in its
resolve to prosecute the war to its logical conclusion.
Intervention will not be undertaken by any Power that is not prepared to go
to war, and does not see a fair prospect of success in an attack upon the
British Empire. Intervention therefore will be prevented if the Navy is kept
ready for any emergency, and if the Government measures for arming the
Nation are so carried out as to convince continental Powers that they will
produce an appreciable result. That conviction does not yet exist, but it is
not too late to create it.
The Cape Dutch will not be able to embarrass a British Government that knows
its own mind and is resolved to treat them fairly while asserting its
authority in the Transvaal and the Free State. The peace at any price party
at home is trying hard to press its false doctrines, but in the present
temper of the Nation has no chance of success, provided only that the
Government carries out without hesitation or vacillation the policy to which
it is by all its action committed, of bringing the territories of the Boer
Republics under British administration so soon as the military power of the
Boers has been broken.
